High Unemployment Caused by Welfare Programs
June 10, 2013 - NCPA
The market tanked recently on bad preliminary job news. And so, when the most
recent jobs report was released, the unemployment rate and the number of new
jobs came under close scrutiny. Even the Federal Reserve focuses on the
unemployment rate, announcing on a number of occasions that a rate of 6.5
percent will indicate when it is time to start raising interest rates and
winding down the Fed's easy-money policies. Yet the unemployment rate is not the
best guide to the strength of the labor market, particularly during this
recession and recovery, says Edward P. Lazear, a fellow at the Hoover
Institution.
Instead, the Fed and the rest of us should be watching the employment rate.
There are two reasons.
- A better measure of a strong labor market is the proportion of the
population that is working, not the proportion that isn't. In 2006, 63.4
percent of the working-age population was employed. That percentage declined
to a low of 58.2 percent in July 2011 and now stands at 58.6 percent. By this
measure, the labor market's health has barely changed over the past three
years.
- The headline unemployment rate, what the Bureau of Labor Statistics calls
"U3," uses as its numerator the number of individuals who are actively seeking
work but do not have jobs. There is another highly relevant measure that
captures what is going on in the economy. "U6" counts those marginally
attached to the workforce -- including the unemployed who dropped out of the
labor market and are not actively seeking work because they are discouraged,
as well as those working part time because they cannot find full-time
work.
Every time the unemployment rate changes, analysts and reporters try to
determine whether unemployment changed because more people were actually working
or because people simply dropped out of the labor market entirely, reducing the
number actively seeking work. The employment rate (that is, the
employment-to-population ratio) eliminates this issue by going straight to the
bottom line:
Why have so many workers dropped out of the labor force and stopped actively
seeking work? Partly this is due to sluggish economic growth. But research by
the University of Chicago's Casey Mulligan has suggested that because government
benefits are lost when income rises, some people forgo poor jobs in favor of
government benefits -- unemployment insurance, food stamps and disability
benefits, among the most obvious. Government subsidization of poverty through
welfare program is creating the poverty and unemployment in the United States
today.
Source: Edward P. Lazear, "The
Hidden Jobless Disaster," Wall Street Journal, June 5, 2013.
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